I once saw two parrots. They might have been twins, yet again, maybe not.

24.12.07

Christmas gifts and relationships

Here on Christmas Eve, that great day of consumer spending, the Courier-Mail has some practical advice for us all.

Apparently it's terribly important to select Christmas gifts carefully if you are in a relationship, especially a new one. Should your gift be vastly different in quality and price to the one you receive, the relationship may be doomed. Even worse, one of you might buy a gift for the other but not vice versa. The wrong gift or no gift at all could spell instant disaster for the relationship.

Do I live on the same planet as these people?

Surely if the wrong gift kills a relationship, then that relationship was not meant to be. Sure, the wrong gift might be the straw that broke the camel's back but it must be symptomatic of larger problems. It must be a pretty fragile or shallow relationship that is killed solely by the wrong Christmas gift.

If your relationship can't survive the wrong Christmas gift, how are you going to cope together through the rest of life's trial and tribulations? It's not for nothing that the traditional marriage vows talk about "for worse", "for poorer", and "in sickness".

Maybe they need to update the wedding vows. "Will you love him, honour him and keep him even if he buys your Christmas gift from the Crazy Clark discount bin?"

Alternatively, maybe I should stop reading the Courier-Mail and its quality journalism.

20.12.07

Yahoo Answers - the good, the bad and the ugly

I've been pondering Yahoo Answers lately. I like the concept that, despite the entire WWW of information, there are still questions that cannot be easily answered except by individuals who possess some relatively unique or specialised knowledge.

The downside of Yahoo Answers is the fact that any clueless twit can, and sadly does, use it.

The questions that genuinely belong in Yahoo Answers are drowned in a sea of questions that aren't appropriate (both in my opinion and Yahoo's own guidelines).

It perplexes me why people would bother asking Yahoo Questions for matters that could be resolved with any trivial WWW search, "What's the postcode for Alice Springs?". Similarly I wonder about the people who ask questions that are so unconstrained as to be effectively unanswerable, "Where should I go on holidays this year?" from a person whose home location, budget and interests are completely unknown. And of course there are the school assignment questions (and often the asker even admits they are a school assignment). And finally there are the sex and toilet questions that one assumes are being asked by children still at the fart joke stage of intellectual development "Where should I go in Sydney to see couples make out?" (real question!). And there are some questions so incoherent that one has no idea what is being asked.

What doubly perplexes me is why people bother to answer most of the above. There will often be half a dozen replies with the same answer regarding the postcode for Alice Springs (you would think one would suffice, although I guess concurrency could explain more than 1 answer but not when they are spread over days). And people will suggest that you rent a cabin by Lake NeverHeardOfIt because the fishing is really good there.

But those are what I might deem the "rational answers". There are of course the people whose answer is "I don't know" or something incoherent or just plain old spam. There are also answers that are so obviously factually erroneous that you wonder if the answerers are complete idiots or just malicious.

Indeed my favourite to date was the question about the time difference between California and Sydney. Now that's a pretty factual question, the answer to which is complicated in practice by the use of daylight savings at different times of year, but still capable of being answered relative to any date or by explaining the daylight saving issue. Alas, the answers ranged from about 6 to 19 hours. Some answers said that Sydney was a day behind California (I guess America must be first at everything!). The most priceless part of it all is that the asker annointed the answer of "12 hours" as being "the best answer" explaining it was in the middle of the range of answers provided. Clearly the asker thought time difference was not a matter of fact but a matter of popular opinion, so I guess they got the answer they deserved.

Yahoo have introduced a complicated system of reportings and levels and points which is intended to somewhat constrain the activities of the rampant idiot or malicious user, but it really weeds out only the most persistent or most malicious or most idiotic users. What destroys Yahoo Answers is the vast army of people whose occasional idiotic question or dumb answer creates a morass of trash in which the genuine question and answers remain lost to view.

This is the same problem that has destroyed Usenet groups and diminishes the worth of just about every public forum on the Internet; they are too open to the public. Of course this is what the traditional custodians of knowledge (the editors, librarians and curators) have been saying for years about the Internet and they are right. But equally they are wrong in thinking/hoping the world is going to return to a state in which they are the providers, custodians and therefore the bottlenecks for information.

The challenge is to find the middle ground, the ways and means to scalably and democratically regulate "public" discussion. I envisage some kind of meritocracy-based group post-hoc moderation, perhaps along the lines of the Slashdot system (but hopefully less complicated -- the Slashdot system was invented by geeks for geeks and can't be explained to anyone even assuming you understand it yourself!). But some days I'd settle for plain old moderator-dictatorship in the interim!

Indeed, I am always impressed that Wikipedia survives the onslaught of public idiocy and malice. I guess the need to be able to edit Wiki is an intellectual barrier to the participation of many of the idiots out there and the readily available "roll back" of Wikipedia is an easy antidote to the malicious. But the price of accuracy on Wiki is the eternal vigilence of its users and its change patrol (even if they do behave like online vigilantes at times).

18.12.07

Share markets and rollercoasters

Yesterday the share market took a fall. Usual media hysteria followed. Why? Share markets are like rollercoasters, they rise steadily over time and then do a sudden drop. Then they rise steadily and do a sudden drop. There is years of data to show this pattern. It's been studied to death and is explained by a number of factors that are now pretty well understood. Why do we get so excited every time it happens? And more importantly why do people rush to sell when it happens? "Oooh, here's a chance to lose money -- I must take it!".

There is something completely counter-intuitive about the way people sell shares. If the house prices fall, people tend to stay put. When prices rise, they sell their house. But it's the other way with the stock market. The less someone offers for the shares, the more willing people seem to be to sell. It seems pretty crazy to me.

Still, we can profit by this crazy behaviour. Falls in the stock market are great buying opportunities. This morning I bought XYZ (not their real name!) shares for 81.5c. I'd been thinking of buying them last week when they were around 90c but didn't get around to doing it. Last night they closed at 84c and I offered to buy them at that price (thinking that was a pretty good deal), but so enthuasiastic were the sellers to offload them that when the market opened, they were offering them at 81.5c. So I get to buy shares at 81.5c when I was perfectly willing to pay 84c last night and 90c last week. But it gets better, in the middle of the day, I could have bought them for about 76c (pity I had to go to work), but by the end of the day they were back to 81.5c again.

So we have a share that fluctuated 8c in a day or around 10% of the share price or about 20% in less than a week. Now what happened to that company in that day or week to cause this variation? Nothing at all. It's not particularly exposed to the "subprime crisis" which supposedly underpinned the "crash" yesterday, a point the company announced to the market yesterday presumably in response to the falling share price. Indeed, I suspect that announcement caused the price to start bouncing back.

To me, these falls are just buying opportunities. Find a stock that lost a lot of ground for no apparent reason and buy it. Wait a month or so for the price to return to previous levels and you can pocket 5-20% for your trouble. Beats putting your spare cash in the bank! Of course, I have no guarantee that this is what XYZ will do, but clearly it's what I'm hoping it will do.

NB I didn't name the share, not to be secretive, but simply because I didn't want to appear to be spruiking it on a public blog. If you are interested, feel free to email me.

Newspapers and Christmas

As I picked up the newspaper from my front yard this morning, I noticed how skinny it is. Is it because there is less news in the week before Christmas or is it because the journalists are all on holidays?

One of the perennial (in the sense of it occurs annually) mysteries of my life is why there is no newspaper on Christmas Day (or Good Friday), which are ironically two days in which I have plenty of time to read and enjoy a newspaper.

The "obvious" reason is that the staff of the newspaper want to have those days off to attend to their family celebrations and religious devotions etc. But my problem is this. The newspaper is written and printed the night before and it's delivered in the early hours of the morning to my front yard. How does any of that interfere with the traditional celebration of Christmas or Good Friday? And since newspapers are published the morning after Christmas and Good Friday, when were the staff working? Presumably on Christmas Day and Good Friday. It makes no sense to me at all.

Maybe the real issue that is nobody wants to read a newspaper on those days so they won't buy one? Or maybe nobody wants to advertise on those days because the shops are closed?

I dunno, but every year it makes me wonder ...